Mexico vs USMNT CONCACAF Qualifiers predictions: who has the best chance of winning?


The two teams share second place in the standings, but far behind Canada. They need to win to consolidate their qualification and definitely get a direct ticket to Qatar 2022, a World Cup that promises many surprises and stars who, to date, have not secured their ticket. One of them is Cristiano Ronaldo.

More news about the Mexican national team:

In the Mexico vs Costa Rica match, Rogelio Funes Mori was booed at Azteca Stadium and heard on national TV

Let us remember that the Mexican the national team is going through a very tense situation regarding the continuity of its coach, Gerard Martino. Mexican media say that if they do not win against the United States, they could slide back into instability after the victory against Panama.

Both teams have 21 points in the general table, with 6 games won, 3 drawn and 2 lost, an unusual parity between the two teams since it is a 100% similarity.

Who is the favorite between Mexico and USA for the Qatar 2022 qualifiers?

If we analyze the last 11 matches played between the two, Mexico has a slight advantage of 5 points won against the 4 of the United States and 2 which ended in draws.

This graph shows the parity between the two teams, which has held even in recent history.

“Despite the parity, Mexico at home is convincing since they have an 80% chance of winning.”

Place your bets: what is the probability that Mexico will beat the USMNT by two or more goals?

Mexico has a 26.18% chance of scoring two goals against the United States playing at home would ensure a victory against the classic rival.

The highest probability is for Mexico score a goal or two. Winning by three or more goals weakens the odds and in this game the probability of an eventual win in Tri is diluted.

With this painting we affirm the passage of the Mexican national team to the Qatar 2022 World Cup.

Can the United States beat Mexico?

Almost none. We’re sorry to be decisive but they have a 45.29% chance of not scoring goals in this game which takes them away from the illusion of playing the game against El Tri.

But there’s no denying that this is a team that always knows how to overcome adversity, so they have a 14.21% chance of scoring two away goals, something that hadn’t happened in a long time. away matches.

According to these results, Mexico will be the winner of this match.

What system is used to predict this data?

At El Futbolero Mexico, we decided to apply our measurement system based on the historical data of the two teams helped by “The Professor”, knowing the statistical models and applicable Poisson distributions through programming in Phyton.

Thanks to this, we can predict how many goals each team can score based on historical results.

More USMNT news:

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